Weekly Wrap: An Ounce Up for Grabs, Gold Revisits the 80s, and a New Portfolio Pick
The worst gold sell-off in 40 years, defence stocks catching contract flow, and we're giving way an ounce of gold
If you were long anything other than oil or defence this week, you probably don’t want to look at your trading app right now.
Gold just posted its biggest dollar drop in a single week, ever. In percentage terms it fell 10.5%, the worst since 2011. The ASX 200 fell 2.6% and US markets notched their third straight losing week, all while Brent crude pushed back towards US$100.
Plus the Strait of Hormuz is still shut (to anyone not named China or Russia), though Trump now says he's considering winding down the war (while also sending 2,500 more marines to the Middle East). Quite a mixed signal.
We’re adding a new name to the portfolio on Tuesday morning and we’ve launched a free competition to win an ounce of gold. Ugly weeks tend to produce the best entry points, and we think we’ve found one.
Here’s what we’re covering off from the week that was:
We’re giving away an ounce of gold for free
We’re adding a new company to our portfolio on Tuesday
Where to now for gold?
Valiant Gold prepares to list with 1.2Moz in the ground
Defence stocks surge as drone warfare contracts pile up
Fortuna Metals adds Kasiya and Iluka experience to the Mkanda team
MNE kicks off 3D seismic in the Perth Basin
We met with 88 Energy as they outline their Alaska drilling plan at US$120 oil
NSW blocks new coal mines while energy prices keep climbing
We're Giving Away an Ounce of Gold
We’re giving away a genuine, physical ounce of gold. One guess, free entry, closest to the pin at 12pm AWST on 1 December 2026 takes home the gold.
We put the comp out on socials earlier in the week and the comments have been flying. Half of you reckon the bubble's popped and gold's done. The other half reckon you'll look back at these prices and wish you'd bought more.
One bloke confidently predicted $0.01, which we appreciate.
Central banks are still buying and government debt keeps piling up, but gold just had its worst week in dollar terms on record. Whether that's the end of the run or the start of the next entry window depends entirely on who you ask.
You’ve clearly got opinions, and we’ve got an ounce of gold that says you should back them.
You can enter the comp here.
A NEW NAME JOINS THE PORTFOLIO ON TUESDAY
We’ve got a new portfolio addition that we’ll be introducing Tuesday morning, and it’s got the sort of setup we like to see:
A clear run of catalysts already mapped out over the next 12 months
A commodity the market is paying attention to right now
Tier-one mining jurisdiction with a lot of the early exploration risk already off the table
A valuation we think is way too cheap for what they're sitting on
We'll have the full breakdown live before market open on Tuesday. If you're subscribed, keep an eye on your inbox. If you're not, hit the button below.
Why is Gold Falling in the Middle of a War?
In January 2026, gold hit just over US$5,600/oz. By the start of this week it had already pulled back to US$5,025/oz, and then it fell off a cliff. Gold closed Friday at US$4,494/oz, its largest weekly dollar drop on record. In percentage terms the 10.5% fall was the worst since 2011.
Plenty of investors are asking the same question: isn’t gold meant to go up during wars?
The 1980s are worth revisiting here, because we think something similar is playing out now.
During the Iranian Revolution and second oil shock in 1979, gold rose from roughly US$217/oz at the start of the year to about US$512 by year end, before peaking near US$850 in early 1980.
Then interest rates went through the roof and gold went sideways for years, even though the Middle East was still a mess. The geopolitics stopped mattering, and rates were all that counted.
The same mechanic is at work today. Oil has surged, conflict risk is real, yet gold has pulled back. Higher energy prices tend to delay interest rate cuts. When markets expect rates to stay higher for longer, investors can earn decent returns holding cash and government bonds, which pulls money away from gold in the short term.
Zoom out though, and the bigger picture for gold hasn’t changed. Governments keep borrowing money they don’t have and central banks keep stacking gold like they know something the rest of us don’t.
Gold’s run over the past few years has been driven by exactly that, and none of it went away because of one bad week.
We think energy costs slow global growth later this year, rate cut expectations come back, and gold gets moving again. And we'd expect that to happen faster than most people think.
On the ASX, gold producers, developers and juniors all copped the brunt of it this week. Every corner of the sector got hit.
For gold investors, this looks like a time to sit tight and watch rates. If you think this pullback is temporary (we do), the beaten-up names are worth a close look.
Debt keeps piling up and so does the money printing, but inflation is climbing with it. If rates pull inflation down as expected and rate cuts come back into play, gold re-rates quickly.
We’ve backed Black Horse Mining (ASX: BHL), which is punching deeper holes into Mt Egerton as we speak, and Exultant Mining (ASX: 10X) and Asian Battery Metals (ASX: AZ9), who are both very active in gold.
We’re still bullish gold long term, and believe all the companies we’ve backed have got serious room to run even at today’s prices.
Valiant Gold Hits the ASX This Week
With all the chaos around gold at the moment, you’d want some decent ground underneath you if you were listing a new gold company on the ASX. This one looks like it does.
Valiant Gold (ASX: VAL) lists on Friday after being spun out of Westgold Resources, the ASX200 producer currently valued at roughly $5 billion.
Westgold could have sold off the assets completely. Instead they'll hold a 44-48% ownership stake in VAL at listing, which tells us they still want to own a big chunk of this story from here.
The ground is in WA's Murchison region, a proven gold belt with established infrastructure and processing nearby.
VAL comes to market carrying around 1.2Moz of JORC Mineral Resources across the Reedy and Comet projects, so this is a real starting inventory rather than a greenfields exploration pitch.
VAL has also locked in an Ore Purchase Agreement with Westgold, which gives them access to processing capacity at the Meekatharra hub without having to fund their own plant upfront. That shortens the route to cashflow by years.
We didn't take part in the VAL IPO, but 1.2Moz in the ground, a potential near-term path to production, and a $5 billion parent still holding close to half the company - it’s a listing worth keeping a close eye on.
Defence Stocks Ride the Drone Warfare Wave
The war in Iran (and the other one in Ukraine) has made it obvious that drones are central to modern conflict, and the ability to detect and stop them is going to be worth a lot of money over the next decade.
Two ASX names have been riding that shift hard - DroneShield (ASX: DRO) and Electro Optic Systems Holdings (ASX: EOS), with shares up 35% and 29% respectively over the past month.
Both companies have backed that share price action with contract flow.
DroneShield recently locked in $21.7 million across six counter-drone system contracts for a western military customer, covering hardware, spare kits and software subscriptions due for delivery through 2026.
Electro Optic Systems followed with US$45 million (~A$64 million) of new counter-drone orders, including a US$42 million Slinger remote weapon system contract aimed at Middle East defence.
Governments globally are spending more on defence, and the specialist tech companies building detection and counter-drone capability are increasingly the ones getting the contracts.
If drone warfare keeps shaping how wars are fought, these smaller ASX names could quietly become some of the bigger beneficiaries of the next defence spending cycle. Budget season across NATO and the Five Eyes is only going to reinforce that.
Fortuna Metals Adds Technical Depth
Fortuna Metals (ASX: FUN) has brought in two heavyweights to guide the next phase at Mkanda - and both come with a pedigree you'd want for a rutile project heading toward a maiden resource.
Richard Stockwell joins as technical consultant with more than two decades of mineral sands discovery and resource development experience, including work as competent person (CP) on Sovereign's Kasiya project just 20km to the north.
Metallurgist Dave Bougourd comes via Iluka, where he ran the Eneabba operations as GM. He'll be leading process flowsheet design and heavy mineral concentration strategy as Mkanda moves toward pre-development planning.
Fortuna has already completed 675 drill holes across a 180km² footprint, with high-grade rutile intersections mapped across a 17.8km² central zone inside a broader 37km² anomaly.
The focus now shifts toward infill drilling and metallurgy ahead of a potential maiden inferred resource in H2 2026.
Getting the Kasiya CP and an Iluka GM on board at this stage tells you where management thinks Mkanda is heading. The resource estimate is the next major milestone, and the team to deliver it is now locked in.
MNE Fires Up 3D Seismic in the Perth Basin
Macallum New Energy (ASX: MNE) has kicked off a ~100 km² 3D seismic survey across EP-494 in the onshore Perth Basin, where Mitsui and Hancock have already thrown over $1.6 billion chasing gas between them.
The target is two Jurassic gas leads, Yarra and Gadee, sitting at around 2,500m depth. Earlier 2D seismic already picked up what look like direct hydrocarbon indicators - flat spots that suggest gas could be sitting there. If those hold up in 3D, these go from ideas on paper to drill-ready prospects.
The survey runs about six weeks and is designed to sharpen the structure, lock down reservoir detail and pin down well locations ahead of a future test.
With the Strait of Hormuz still shut and oil pushing toward US$100, markets are getting a weekly reminder of how fragile global energy supply actually is. A new onshore WA gas discovery today lands into a completely different pricing backdrop than even a year ago.
MNE is still pure exploration and a long way from proving anything up. But the basin has form, the team running it found gas here before with Waitsia, and if this seismic confirms what the 2D suggests, a WA drilling campaign comes into focus fast.
We Sat Down with 88 Energy
We caught up with 88 Energy (ASX: 88E) management this week to hear where things stand ahead of their next drilling campaign on Alaska's North Slope.
The plan is to drill later this year, with the well expected to take around 40 days. They’re targeting conventional reservoirs in a region already surrounded by producing infrastructure and major operators including ConocoPhillips and Santos.
The project sits about 6 miles from the Trans-Alaska Pipeline, which seriously improves the development pathway if they confirm their hopes. For an explorer, that proximity to existing infrastructure changes the economics entirely.
Management outlined a clear sequence of milestones between now and drilling, with permitting, logistics and seasonal planning already mapped out ahead of mobilisation into the next Alaska winter drilling window.
The North Slope hosts some of the largest oil developments in North America and continues to attract major capital, with recent nearby discoveries keeping infrastructure expanding.
CBA economists noted this week there's a strong likelihood oil could move into the US$120-150 range if geopolitical tensions persist. At those prices, a conventional Alaskan oil discovery sitting next to a pipeline becomes a company-maker.
88E is heading into this campaign with a clear plan and a catalyst window that should build steadily as the drilling season approaches.
NSW Shuts the Door on New Coal Mines
New South Wales has become the first state to formally block new greenfield coal mines, ending exploration licence approvals and killing off nine applications that were sitting in the pipeline.
The state still hosts 35 operating mines employing around 24,000 people, spread across the Hunter Valley, Central West and Illawarra. The government's view is that extensions to existing mines will be enough to meet domestic and export demand as the energy transition continues.
That’s a big call when oil is pushing toward US$100 and energy reliability is a daily headline. NSW supplies a large share of the world’s high-quality thermal and metallurgical coal, and Asian trading partners are still buying every tonne they can get.
This old boy from a viral video doing the rounds again this week summed up how a lot of people in coal country might be feeling. Language warning - he doesn’t hold back.
The policy picture across Australia is now split:
NSW: new greenfield mines blocked
Queensland: new projects still being approved
WA: coal development remains allowed
Victoria: effectively discouraged
SA, NT, ACT and Tasmania: no active coal industry
Even WA is shifting though. The state government just signed contracts to bring a gigawatt of wind energy onto the grid, replacing the coal-fired plants at Muja and Collie that are set to close by 2030.
Coal mining in WA carries on, but the direction of travel on domestic energy is clear.
The Week Ahead
Tuesday morning we're introducing a new portfolio company that we think has a lot of value to unlock over the next twelve months. Make sure you're subscribed so you don't miss it.
Markets are being driven by the war right now and that could go either way from here. If Iran and the US find a way to the table, oil comes off, rate cut expectations come back, and equity markets bounce hard. If things escalate further, it gets uglier before it gets better.
We think the worst of the gold sell-off is probably behind us. The pullback makes sense when you understand the rate dynamic, but the long-term drivers haven’t changed. Debt is still piling up, central banks are still buying, and gold at US$4,500 looks a lot more interesting than gold at US$5,600 if you’ve been waiting for an entry.
Speaking of gold, don’t forget to enter our prediction competition. One ounce. Free entry. Have a crack.
Till next week.
