Weekly Wrap: Record Gold, Critical Mineral Politics, and AZ9's Multi-Target Play
Gold smashes through $3,400 as trade tensions build, critical minerals take centre stage in election pitches, AZ9 ramps up regional drilling while TEE reminds investors of prime Beetaloo position
Markets might have called stumps early for the week, but there's been no shortage of action for those keeping tabs on small caps, commodities, and the broader ASX landscape.
In this week's wrap:
AZ9 delivers a promising exploration update.
Gold pushes to new record highs as market dynamics shift.
TEE reminds us there’s another layer to their story.
Critical minerals policy could reshape the landscape after next weekend's federal election.
Let's dive in.
AZ9: Building Momentum at the Oval and Beyond
Asian Battery Metals (ASX: AZ9) dropped a meaty update this week, focused on its Oval copper-nickel discovery in Mongolia.
Key takeaways include:
Expansion of drilling activities: AZ9 confirmed drilling has resumed at the Oval prospect, with new targets being tested based on recent geophysics and geological modelling.
High-priority targets identified: Step-out drilling will aim to extend the known mineralised zones laterally and at depth after encouraging copper and nickel grades in Phase 2.
Strategic land position: The company reinforced its landholding advantage across the broader Kharmagtai Belt, positioning itself favourably against nearby competitors.
Money in the bank: The coffers are looking healthy, with management making it clear they've got enough cash to fund this phase of exploration without having to raise money around any time soon.
The tone from management is upbeat. They've got drills turning, cash in the bank, and a multi-target strategy taking shape.
And AZ9 isn't putting all its chips on its flagship Oval project; it is simultaneously testing Copper Ridge, MS1, and MS2, with each target offering distinct geological potential.
With copper inching closer to US$5/lb and the broader energy transition gaining steam, AZ9's exploration push is timed well. Having multiple targets in the pipeline gives them more shots on goal while the copper theme keeps building.
Those who missed our deeper breakdown earlier this week can read it here.
Gold: This Bull Run Has Legs Beyond Just Fear
Gold pushed through yet another ceiling this week, smashing past US$3,400/oz with barely a pause. The surge isn't riding on a single narrative either. It's got solid backing from multiple angles:
Trade wars heat up: Trump's hefty 145% tariffs on Chinese imports have markets properly spooked about a drawn-out global trade stoush.
Weaker US dollar: A softening dollar, combined with America's growth starting to look a bit wobbly, has investors piling into alternative stores of value.
Central bank demand: Central banks around the world, especially those from emerging economies, continue to steadily build their gold reserves as a buffer against what could be choppy waters ahead.
Shifting investor behaviour: John Ciampaglia, CEO of Sprott asset management, suggested in a CNBC interview that a "fundamental shift" may be underway, where gold is increasingly viewed not just as a crisis hedge but as a core holding.
Miners cashing in: Gold miners have surged alongside the metal itself. Newmont (NYSE: NEM) led the way, delivering stronger-than-expected profits, reflecting the leverage gold producers can offer in a rising gold environment.
Investment banks have been quick to revise their forecasts upward. JP Morgan now sees gold potentially trading above US$4,000/oz within the next 12 months if trade tensions persist.
In short, gold's rally is not just about fear; it's about a changing structural relationship with global markets.
We're rapt to have skin in the game via our Bubalus Resources (ASX: BUS) position, with drilling about to kick off at their Victorian gold project any day now.
TEE Positions For Beetaloo Boom Next Door To Tamboran
Top End Energy (ASX: TEE) quietly dropped an update this week, reminding the market they're sitting on prime Beetaloo Basin real estate in the Northern Territory. While most eyes have been on their Kansas hydrogen play, TEE's three granted permits covering a massive 12,750km² directly border Tamboran's now-bustling EP 98 acreage.
With Tamboran, Empire Energy, and Santos all ramping up exploration activity in adjacent areas, TEE is strategically aligning its work programs to catch the same wave.
The company highlighted its infrastructure advantage - being positioned next to the Amadeus Gas Pipeline and Northern Gas Pipeline means any future discoveries have a clear path to both NT and east coast markets.
TEE's Beetaloo positioning looks increasingly strategic as Australia's gas supply crunch deepens, giving investors a potential second act beyond their Kansas hydrogen story.
Critical Minerals: The Federal Election Wildcard
Critical minerals have muscled their way to centre stage in policy circles as we barrel toward the federal election next weekend. The landscape looks something like this:
The new national security play: Minerals like lithium, rare earths, cobalt and nickel are now seen as vital to national security, renewable energy, and defence industries.
Government action: The federal government announced a plan to stockpile critical minerals as a safeguard against supply chain disruptions.
Election promises:
Labor's betting on expanding the Critical Minerals Strategy with more government funding, particularly for downstream processing – trying to keep more of the value chain in Australian hands.
The Coalition's counter is a suite of tax incentives aimed at getting private money flowing into the sector, with a particular eye on regional development.
Either way, miners win: Regardless of who takes the keys to The Lodge, critical minerals projects are set for a supportive policy environment.
However, the approach differs: Labor wants to steer the ship more directly, while the Coalition prefers to let market forces do the heavy lifting with some tax sweeteners.
As the ABC reports, both parties recognise Australia's unique position but differ in how aggressively they intervene.
The Australian Financial Review's recent analysis cut to the core of it – building our own critical minerals ecosystem isn't just about economics anymore. It's about leverage in a world where supply chains have become political weapons.
Even the BBC has noticed, highlighting Australia's critical minerals as a "new front" in geopolitical competition. China's grip on processing capacity has Western capitals nervous, and Australia happens to have significant deposits of these minerals.
The bottom line is that whoever wins government next weekend will likely continue to back the sector. Still, the level of public funding and speed of execution could vary materially.
Looking Ahead: Federal Election Looms
We're now six days away from Australia heading to the polls, and it's shaping up as more than just another political stoush. For investors in resources, energy and infrastructure, there's real money on the line.
Markets hate uncertainty (don't we all?), but the good news is the limbo shouldn't last long. As we covered last week, historical data suggests the ASX tends to rally post-election once the outcome is clear, regardless of which party wins. The market just wants to know the rules of the game, and then it adjusts and moves on.
Expect a bumpy ride these next few days, though. Those sectors tied to government policy – like resources, energy and renewables – could see some wild swings if the polls shift and traders position themselves for either outcome.
We'll be back next week with the full post-mortem and early market reactions in next week's edition. The dust will have settled by then (well, at least some of it), and we can start mapping out where the opportunities lie.
Until then, keep your eyes on election news and your stops tight. Election weeks aren't for the faint-hearted.
