Weekly Wrap: Argentina's Mining Boom, BHP's Warning, Gold's Relentless Rise
Gold bulls charge on, BHP calls out permitting delays, and Trump eyes copper tariffs in another action-packed week for mining
Our portfolio companies took a breather this week, but the mining sector never sleeps - delivering plenty of activity to keep us busy.
Trump threatened copper imports with tariffs, BHP warned that mining approvals take too long in Western countries, and gold continued its stellar run with investment banks piling on even more bullish forecasts for 2025.
We also dropped our first 'Drill Down' feature on Argentina this month, exploring how Milei's chainsaw economics is reshaping the country's mining scene.
For this deep dive, we also had industry professional and man-on-the-ground Jordan Webster, AKA Geologo Trader, share his thoughts on two must-watch stocks.
These Drill Downs will be monthly longer-form emails looking at countries, metals, or topics worth your attention.
Themes this week
Our first Drill Down: Argentina's mining revolution
BHP's blunt talk on permitting delays
Gold's relentless bull run continues
Trump eyes copper tariffs
Let's get to it.
Our First Drill Down: Argentina
Argentina is rapidly emerging as mining's next hot frontier - a topic that resonated so strongly this week that it became our second most-read article ever.
Now on the brink of a mining boom, Argentina's President Javier Milei is aggressively pursuing pro-business reforms to unlock the country's vast natural resources.
The country sits on massive gold, copper, and lithium deposits that have been frustratingly out of reach for decades. What was missing wasn't geology, it was policy.
Enter President Javier Milei with a chainsaw (literally - he campaigned with one) aimed squarely at the red tape. He's slashing export taxes, speeding up permits, and telling foreign investors the door is wide open.
The big miners have taken notice. BHP, Glencore, and Rio Tinto have already moved in, betting billions that Argentina will become a key player in the global mining scene.
Webster, an Australian geologist in Argentina, shared two stocks he believes are well-positioned: Pampa Metals (CSE: PM) with its copper-gold project and Ronin Resources (ASX: RON), a gold explorer with a strong shareholder register including Tolga Kumova.From our conversations with Jordan, we believe Argentina is firmly on the right track to becoming a mining powerhouse under Milei's reforms.
BHP Calls Out Permitting Delays
At this week's PDAC conference (that's the Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada for those who don't speak mining acronyms), BHP CEO Mike Henry didn't mince words about permitting timelines.
Henry pointed out that new mines can take a staggering 10-15 years to get approved in Australia and Canada - up to three times longer than in South American countries like Argentina.
"Complacency and bureaucracy will be the enemy of future growth and economic security,” Henry said.
“The race isn’t static. As other countries step up, we need to benchmark and accelerate our own national efforts to stay competitive and relevant.”
This blunt assessment puts pressure on Western governments to get their act together and simplify the approval process. When the world's largest miner speaks at a major industry gathering like PDAC, people listen.
Of course, there's always a trade-off. While Chile might approve mines faster than Australia, they've also nationalised copper and lithium mining. The chances of Australia or Canada suddenly deciding to take over your mine are virtually zero, which counts for a lot in long-term investment decisions.
Gold Still the Commodity of Choice
Gold just keeps climbing. As of Friday, it reached approximately US$2,911 per ounce, already up 12% this year and a staggering 43% over the past 12 months.
This remarkable increase is largely attributed to central banks loading their vaults at unprecedented rates.
China, Turkey, Poland, and India have been particularly hungry. Between 2022 and 2024, they collectively bought around 1,000 tonnes annually, a substantial rise from the 500 tonnes average prior to 2022.
Typically, you would expect analysts to turn cautious after such a massive rally. Instead, they're doubling down on bullish forecasts.
On Friday, global investment management firm VanEck raised its gold price target to USD$3,250 by year-end - a more than 10% climb from current levels.
VanEck isn't alone in their optimism. Goldman Sachs' co-head of global commodities research has publicly declared gold as his top commodity pick.
This all ties in firmly with our investment, Bubalus Resources (ASX: BUS), a $7.5 million junior gold explorer who is set to drill their Victorian targets in the next two months.
With gold prices at these levels, any decent discovery could send BUS soaring, especially given its strategic position between two of Australia's highest-grade gold mines.
Trump's Latest Target: Copper Imports
It wouldn't be a weekly wrap without a new Trump tariff to discuss. This week, the US president sent ripples through the global copper market by floating a potential 25% tariff on copper imports.
The proposal aims to bring manufacturing back to American soil, but it would create significant waves in the global copper trade, hitting major exporters like Chile and Peru particularly hard.
This talk alone pushed copper prices higher as traders weighed the potential for tighter supply and increased US domestic demand.
A tariff of this magnitude would also likely accelerate domestic mining projects, potentially reshaping long-term supply patterns.
If implemented, Trump's copper tariff would add more pressure to an already tight market. We and virtually every analyst see the market heading for serious supply deficits by decade's end.
It remains to be seen whether this policy actually materialises. It has the hallmarks of a negotiating tactic rather than a fully formed policy. Nevertheless, the possibility is already moving markets, highlighting copper’s position as one of the world’s most strategically important commodities.
The Wrap
This week reinforced several key trends we've been watching: the global competition for mining investment, gold's continued bull run, and copper's increasingly critical position in the global economy.
Argentina's mining reforms are creating real momentum, with major miners already committing billions. Meanwhile, gold continues to defy expectations, with analysts still bullish despite the massive run over the past year.
Gold's relentless climb has captured the attention of institutional heavyweights. At the same time, we remain bullish on Bubalus Resources with its attractive valuation and significant near-term news flow as drilling approaches.
Markets move fast, and this week was proof that the landscape can shift overnight. Whether it's permitting, tariffs or upcoming elections, we'll continue to cover everything and give you insight and our take on what's happening globally.
