Weekly Wrap: Copper's Surge Continues, Gold Stays Hot, and another AVZ Twist
From Kansas to the Congo, exploration momentum builds as bullish commodity trends provide tailwinds across multiple sectors and regions
Metals and money are moving again as we barrel into the sweet spot of the small-cap calendar year.
Gold hit another record high, copper charged past US$11,000/t, the lithium battleground in the DRC intensifies with Bill Gates entering the fray, and natural hydrogen continues its quiet march forward in the US.
Here's what caught our eye this week:
Resource assessment in the US for natural hydrogen play Top End Energy
Gold price hits record highs as Bubalus Resources gears up for maiden drilling
Copper surge continues as it breaks through US$11,000/t
Bill Gates’ KoBold Metals makes a move on AVZ’s Manono lithium project
Let's get to it.
Top End Energy kicks off hydrogen resource assessment
Top End Energy (ASX: TEE) is putting some meat on the bones of their Kansas hydrogen story, kicking off a prospective resource assessment at their 100% owned Serpentine project.
This marks another step forward in the natural hydrogen narrative - a space still nascent but rapidly gaining interest as investors wake up to the potential of clean, geologically sourced energy.
TEE has brought in Australian consultants with Kansas hydrogen experience to conduct the work under the Petroleum Resources Management System – the globally recognised standard that only recently expanded in 2022 to include natural hydrogen.
TEE now moving through the process to resource estimation.
The geology here is the key. Kansas sits on the Midcontinent Rift (basically hydrogen country) and TEE has planted their flag right in the middle of it. With serious technical backing now on board, they're taking the first steps toward understanding what might be beneath those Kansas plains.
It's early days, but getting this resource assessment right is a crucial foundation
Bubalus Resources announces drilling as gold continues to run
Bubalus Resources (ASX: BUS) is ready to put holes in the ground, announcing they've locked in a drilling contractor for their maiden drill program at Crosbie South in the Victorian Goldfields. The rigs fire up in late April - now just weeks away.
Their Crosbie licence sits between two Australian gold heavyweights - Fosterville and Costerfield - in a region famous for big high-grade deposits.
Early rock chip results have already teased what might be below, including a promising 19.1 g/t gold.
The technical boxes are ticked too. Geophysical anomalies point to targets, and BUS has mapped out a well-defined magmatic-hydrothermal system - the exact plumbing system that can deliver substantial gold deposits.
The timing couldn't be better. Gold stormed through US$3,050/oz this week, with the big banks scrambling to revise their forecasts upwards.
ANZ lifted its six-month forecast to US$3,200/oz, while UBS remains firmly bullish, pointing to sticky inflation and potential Fed rate cuts as perfect tailwinds for gold.
For a small-cap explorer like Bubalus, the leverage of a $5.5 million EV to a rising gold price, with drilling starting shortly, is one of the main reasons we backed BUS.
Copper breaks $5/lb – Active junior explorers set to benefit
The copper price smashed through US$5/lb and surged beyond US$11,000/t this week, marking a significant inflection point that has copper bulls licking their lips.
The rally has been driven by a mix of tariff fears, tight LME inventories, and continued demand from electrification and infrastructure plays.
For junior explorers with copper assets, this environment is as good as it gets - high prices, low stockpiles, and institutional money eyeing the next scalable deposit.
Mongolian-based Asian Battery Metals (ASX: AZ9) is right in the middle of its drilling campaign, and any further massive sulphide intercepts in this campaign are likely to attract market attention. Previous drilling hit eye-watering intercepts like 8.8 metres at 6.08% copper.
What's important is not that AZ9 defines a complete resource but that it shows it's targeting the right system. With previous world-class shallow intercepts already in the bank, this deeper drilling could force the market to wake up to what AZ9 is sitting on.
With copper at these levels, sentiment and narrative matter more than ever. AZ9's timing could prove impeccable if those drill results start flowing in the weeks ahead.
AVZ’s Manono gets even messier — KoBold makes its move
Last week, Donald Trump muscled into the AVZ Minerals' saga. This week, Bill Gates fancied a piece of the world's largest hard rock lithium deposit. The battle for Manono just went from wild to surreal.
The Gates-backed KoBold Metals has now thrown their hat into the ring, seeking a stake in the monster Congolese lithium project. The US-based private company has proposed a deal that excludes Cominiere, instead requesting the Congolese government take a minority shareholding in the project. 1
Why is this huge? KoBold is one of the most well-capitalised and technically sophisticated entrants in the critical minerals space. Their interest validates the scale and strategic importance of Manono.
Rarely has a mining asset become such a geopolitical prize. The US wants Manono out of Chinese hands, and Western governments are keenly aware of what's at stake - the world's largest hardrock lithium deposit in an increasingly lithium-hungry world.
With a resource of over 400Mt at 1.65% Li₂O,2 Manono remains one of the most coveted lithium assets on the planet. The fact that KoBold would enter this legal minefield speaks volumes about the deposit's significance.
“KoBold would welcome the opportunity to develop the asset.”
- KoBold Chief Legal Officer Sandy Alexander wrote to Congo President Felix Tshisekedi’s chief of staff in January 2025
The possibility of KoBold potentially unlocking this asset comes amid a complex legal backdrop. Recently, AVZ secured a partial arbitration victory, winning €39.1m in penalties against Cominiere,3 which adds another layer to the ongoing negotiations.
The implications for AVZ shareholders are complex.
Current developments indicate ongoing negotiations, with AVZ currently engaged in arbitration proceedings and preliminary discussions with potential US-based funding partners. The company's CEO, Nigel Ferguson, was notably copied on KoBold's official communication.
If AVZ wins its case or forces a settlement, compensation could come from Cominiere, the DRC government, or potentially KoBold, depending on how many overlapping claims are resolved.
While the legal proceedings continue, AVZ remains actively engaged in multiple arbitration processes to protect its interests in the Manono project.
The next 3–6 months are crucial, with arbitration outcomes and political negotiations likely to determine whether AVZ shareholders recover any value.
The Manono saga has now drawn in Chinese mining giants, the US government, a tech billionaire, and more than 21,000 shareholders hanging on every development. The world's biggest lithium deposit has become a corporate and geopolitical battlefield.
The Wrap
We're now entering one of the busy times of the year in the small-cap space. Traditionally, the period of mid-March to early May generates the most interest.
We expect to see increased newsflow from our portfolio companies along with the broader market. With copper and gold prices remaining very healthy, the time for junior exploration is now.
As always, we'll be closely watching the drill bits, the price charts, the mergers, the acquisitions, and the legal updates.
This website offers general information intended to guide you, and does not constitute personal advice. We recommend considering how this information aligns with your personal goals and financial circumstances. All information and advice is provided without any responsibility of liability on any account whatsoever on the part of this firm or any member or employee thereof.
Equities Club Ltd (CAR No. 001308139) is a corporate authorised representative of ShareX Pty Ltd, Australian Financial Services License (AFSL) No. 519872.
Disclosure: Equities Club owns 267,061 shares of BUS, 750,000 shares of AZ9 and 600,000 shares of TEE at the time of publishing this article. Equities Club has been engaged by BUS, AZ9 and TEE at the time of writing.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-21/kobold-makes-offer-for-congo-lithium-as-country-courts-us
https://avzminerals.com.au/manono-mine
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/australias-avz-minerals-scores-legal-victory-against-congo-over-disputed-lithium-2025-03-14/
That article needs to get edited.....there are many mistakes in the write up. please inform yourself and edit asap