Weekly Wrap: Mining Indaba Insights, Doubling Down on TEE & Tariffs Loom Large
Fresh insights from Mining Indaba, why we've doubled down on TEE, and tariffs on everyone's mind
The Equities Club team was on the ground in Cape Town this week at Mining Indaba 2025, Africa’s biggest mining conference. With gold at record highs but junior explorers still lagging, the disconnect was a hot topic among investors.
Meanwhile, Top End Energy (ASX: TEE) finalised their strategic US natural hydrogen acquisition, and Trump's latest tariff moves sent commodity markets into a spin.
In this week's wrap:
Mining Indaba/121 Conference insights – Fresh perspectives from industry leaders & ASX juniors on the fround at Cape Town.
Top End Energy's US hydrogen expansion – Deal complete as TEE finalises strategic positioning in natural hydrogen.
Trump's trade war & tariffs – Market impact & opportunities for ASX juniors.
Let's get into it.
Mining Indaba 2025: What We Found on the Ground
The Equities Club team split our time between Mining Indaba and the 121 Mining Investment Conference in Cape Town. While Indaba gave us the big picture, 121 was where ASX juniors pitched their stories and deals took shape.
Gold’s Big Year – But Junior Explorers Haven’t Caught Up
Gold dominated every discussion at Indaba. While the metal trades at record highs, junior explorers remain undervalued - creating one of the best setups we've seen in years.
What an increased gold price means for junior gold explorers:
Gold juniors historically lag behind price spikes but tend to catch up later.
Merger & Acquisition activity is rising, with majors acquiring high-grade, low-risk deposits.
Global uncertainty continues pushing institutional money toward gold exposure.
Africa’s Next Mining Hotspots: Zambia & Gabon
Mali's troubles have sent investors hunting for safer ground in Africa. After countless conversations at both conferences, two countries kept coming up: Zambia and Gabon. Both are making a serious play for mining investment, and the pitch is working.
Stable governments and large exploration upside were the main benefits attracting attention.
Zambia: A Copper Powerhouse in the Making
The government's pro-mining stance and untapped potential drew serious interest.
Zambia notes we jotted down:
Africa's second-largest copper producer with pro-mining government.
A key supplier to Western markets as global copper demand outpaces supply.
Companies like Prospect Resources (ASX: PSC) are leading new exploration efforts.
Fresh interest flowing into the region's copper potential.
Gabon: The Gold & Base Metals Opportunity
Fund managers couldn't stop talking about Gabon. Between the high-grade gold hits and stable government, we can see why:
Growing interest from global fund managers in Gabon’s under-explored, high-potential ground. Gabon is known for high-grade gold deposits.
Apollo Minerals (ASX: AON) is the company that caught our eye, already in Gabon with a strong technical team and good exploration targets.
Investors continue to look to stable locations, shifting away from Mali, where political instability is a rising concern.
The Ministerial symposium from Mining Indaba 2025. Source: X:MiningIndaba
ASX Juniors Hold the Funding Advantage
What we learned about funding:
The consensus was TSX-listed explorers are struggling for funding, while ASX juniors remain the preferred location for deals and capital raises.
Fewer drill programs globally mean strong exploration results stand out more.
Top End Energy Expands in the US Natural Hydrogen Rush
While Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos pour money into Kansas natural hydrogen, Top End Energy (ASX: TEE) just quietly completed their strategic Serpentine Energy acquisition next door.
Their acquisition puts them in the heart of what's rapidly becoming the global hotspot for natural hydrogen development.
What Makes This Significant:
TEE’s landholding is within the Kansas hydrogen corridor, a key hotspot for global energy players.
Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos & United Airlines are backing multi-billion-dollar hydrogen investments in Koloma, which is located next to TEE.
BP, Mitsubishi, Osaka Gas and even Rio Tinto are entering the space, validating natural hydrogen’s long-term potential.
Unlike green hydrogen, natural hydrogen is geologically formed & extracted like oil & gas, making it low-cost & scalable.
With drills set to spin in H2 2025, TEE offers ASX investors ground-floor exposure to a sector attracting serious money. The billionaires aren't backing natural hydrogen for fun, we think this emerging sector could reshape energy markets.
With billion-dollar players betting big next door to this small-cap, we're backing our conviction - we nearly doubled our TEE holding buying on market this week.
Trump’s Trade War: How it’s Reshaping Markets & the ASX
You’d be forgiven for not understanding where everything is at in relation to Trump and his tariff spree. It seems every day there is a new tariff that is quickly rescinded when the country caves to Trump’s demands.
His 25% hit on Canadian and Mexican imports lasted barely a day before being paused, while China hit back on US tariffs with mineral export restrictions, particularly on rare earths & battery metals.
The impact rippled through every market:
Gold pushed higher as investors sought safe havens.
Crypto saw its largest liquidation event ever - US $2B wiped out in 24 hours, with Bitcoin dropping from US $105,000 to $91,000.
Traditional markets swung wildly on each announcement.
What tariffs mean for ASX stocks
Gold miners benefit from rising prices, while base metals explorers face demand uncertainty. We believe juniors will catch up.
Lithium & rare earth companies (ASX: LYC and ASX: ARU) could gain from China’s supply restrictions. The US will look to invest in Australian rare earth companies.
ASX energy stocks stand to benefit from growing LNG & natural gas demand in Asia.
More turbulence lies ahead. Trump's promising "reciprocal tariffs" next week that could hit everyone from Europe to Japan, but for now, the market chaos is creating opportunities for well-positioned ASX juniors.
Final Takeaways
Everyone at Mining Indaba was talking gold, which usually rings alarm bells (when everyone loves something, it's often time to run). But this time feels different. With physical metal flying across the Atlantic and Trump reshaping global trade weekly, gold's got more legs than your typical consensus trade.
As we’ve been banging on about, we think natural hydrogen is the dark horse worth watching. While gold grabs headlines, the quiet stampede of billionaires and energy giants into Kansas tells its own story. Small-cap Top End Energy sitting in the middle of this is the kind of asymmetric bet we love.
Meanwhile, we'll keep doing what we do - attending the conferences, talking to management teams, and finding opportunities before they hit the mainstream. From what we saw in Cape Town this week, 2025 is already shaping up to be an interesting year for ASX small-cap investors.
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